The hottest real estate is cold, and the glass mar

The glass market is getting bleak when the real estate is cold.

last week, the main 1409 contract of glass futures once again hit a new low of 1056 yuan/ton since its listing, and the decline since April has reached 18%. The long-awaited rebound in the market is difficult to come. The author believes that under the background of excess supply and insufficient demand in the current spot market, the glass market is still in a "cold winter"

manufacturers rushed to reduce prices and promote sales to stabilize market share

as of Friday, China's glass confidence index fell to 978.33 points, down 86.18 points from the beginning of the year, falling below the 1000 point mark, while the previous market confidence index fell below the 1000 point mark in November 2011. However, through careful analysis, we can also find that the current average price of glass in the national market is 1217 yuan/ton, while the average price in November 2011 was 1494 yuan/ton, indicating that even in the same pessimistic market atmosphere, if there is no recording paper for universal testing machine, this year's glass price has fallen to an all-time low since 2010

the warm winter at the beginning of the year made the spot price remain strong. Under the background that the gross profit last year was still considerable, manufacturers were unwilling to take the initiative to reduce prices to inventory, and the increasing sales pressure after the Spring Festival made the spot price fall endlessly. At present, the average market price in Beijing is 1137 yuan/ton, down 198 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year; The average price in Guangzhou was 1353 yuan/ton, down 242 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year; The average price in Shanghai was 1257 yuan/ton, down 321 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year; Wuhan was 1138 yuan/ton, down 227 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year; Jinan was 1103 yuan/ton, down 228 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year. A power battery executive with a wind vane said: the decline in subsidies puts vehicle enterprises under great pressure. In Shahe region, the price of 5mm white glass was 1216 yuan/ton in the same period last year, but has now fallen to 1000 yuan/ton, and the factory price of enterprises is as low as 920 yuan/ton. Due to the poor overall market demand, enterprises compete to reduce prices and promote sales in order to maintain their market share, so as to reduce inventory, and the focus of the whole market continues to move downward

after the real estate boom, the glass industry is swimming naked

at present, the national real estate market is generally "cooling down". On the one hand, the inventory of new commercial housing hit another record high. Data showed that by the end of May, the total inventory of new commercial housing in 35 cities had increased by 2.7% month on month and 20.1% year-on-year, and the hope of real estate enterprises to run volume had failed. As the "prophet of spring duck", real estate agents are also sad about the "cold winter" and have closed their stores. On the other hand, the trading volume of second-hand houses has been declining. Taking Beijing, a first tier city, as an example, in the first five months of this year, the total trading volume of second-hand houses in Beijing was 38000 units, a sharp drop of 55.8% year-on-year, the lowest value in the same period since 2009, and far below the average trading volume of 664100 units in the same period since the installation of deformation was measured in six years

on the one hand, the main demand for glass is for the decoration of completed new houses, on the other hand, it is for the renovation of second-hand houses. From the current data of the real estate market, the poor demand for glass is also expected. From the point of view of the final calculation node, June should have been the time point when the downstream demand for glass began to start, but under the current background of manufacturers' price reduction and promotion, the orders in East China and South China were less than expected. Therefore, the weak demand accelerated the decline of glass spot price

the delivery benchmark is transferred, and the futures price resonates with the fundamentals.

under the pessimistic expectation of the real estate market, the demand for glass orders has decreased significantly this year, which failed to support the weak glass price. At the same time, since East China, which was previously the benchmark delivery place, has not appeared warehouse receipts, it is also in line with the market demand for the exchange to change the benchmark delivery place of glass to North China. In addition, the exchange has also adjusted the premium of each factory and warehouse, among which Yaohua Glass factory and warehouse have changed greatly, from the original premium of 20 yuan/ton to the level with Shahe, and other factories and warehouses have made fine adjustments. The adjustment of the premium has been implemented since the 1506 contract, which will not affect the existing contracts. However, due to the resonance between the previous market expectations and the weak fundamentals, the glass futures price accelerated its decline and repeatedly hit new lows

China glass () Department